By Craig Shallahamer, Apress Page count: about pages. Oracle and its practitioners are at least a decade ahead of MySQL in terms of treating performance scientifically. This book is a compendium of performance forecasting techniques. It begins with an introduction to performance forecasting with simple models, and gradually gets into the more advanced techniques such as queuing theory, which match the real world better. It ends with chapters on ratio modeling, linear regression modeling, and scalability.

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By Craig Shallahamer, Apress Page count: about pages. Oracle and its practitioners are at least a decade ahead of MySQL in terms of treating performance scientifically.

This book is a compendium of performance forecasting techniques. It begins with an introduction to performance forecasting with simple models, and gradually gets into the more advanced techniques such as queuing theory, which match the real world better. It ends with chapters on ratio modeling, linear regression modeling, and scalability. The book is fairly straightforward and easy to read. Chapter summaries are well written, and the structure is clear and well thought through.

It has frequent case studies to show the topics through examples. I appreciated this; I think it makes things pretty clear, although it is a bit wordy sometimes. Some of my colleagues did not like the case studies at all. It introduces the challenges in forecasting performance. Chapter 2 begins with definitions of transactions, arrival rate, and other notions that are essential to understanding performance. It begins to discuss the familiar response time curve and queuing at this point.

Later in the chapter, it introduces what it calls essential mathematics for performance forecasting. These are a handful of formulas that the author uses to model performance under changing circumstances. I have an issue with these formulas. All of the definitions and math that we have seen so far in the book makes it seem as though we are talking about the formal queueing math that many of us are perhaps used to. However, the formulas that are shown here under the essential mathematics heading are not Erlang C formulas.

They are approximations that are not accurate at all. The author does not disclose this, and a lazy reader such as myself might assume that he is simply skipping some of the more advanced aspects of queuing theory and presenting the functions simplified down to their most important forms. Indeed, this is what I thought at first. Readers need to beware that this chapter is playing fast and loose with the response time mathematics. In chapter 3, the author introduces modeling gotchas, several forecasting models, and how to choose them.

At this point it also begins to talk about more correct response time mathematics, such as the Erlang C formulas. There is a lot of discussion of the difference between these formulas and the so-called essential formulas presented earlier. Chapter 5 follows with an introduction to queuing theory. There are lots of graphs in this chapter, showing how the response time curves change under different circumstances. The spreadsheet shows a lot of output that the author never explains mathematically, such as standard deviation of response time.

How does one forecast the standard deviation of response time given the input parameters? I am not sure. I wish the book had told me, so I could form an opinion on whether it is valid and useful. Another thing that I think this book glosses over is validating that the workload can be modeled accurately with queuing theory. The distribution of arrival rates and response times matters a lot, but it really was not mentioned prominently.

I would consider chapter 6 to be something that most people want to skip. In fact, chapter 7, which is about characterizing the workload, is much the same way. After reading it, I was unclear on exactly how to apply it. Maybe I just needed to read it more times. Oh, here is the chapter summary. Chapter 8 introduces ratio modeling, which is essentially a set of rules of thumb that predict how a system might perform based on intuition and experience with similar systems.

I am not sure how useful this is, because the ratios seem overly simplistic. However, I am willing to accept that because systems are so hard to model, ratios might be just as good as formal queueing math. Chapter 9 is about linear regression modeling. There is a lot of good stuff in here about how to take a list of measurements and fit it to a curve. There are examples of residual analysis, how to get rid of statistical outliers, and how to understand the correlation strength.

Chapter 10, Scalability, begins with a definition that I think most people get wrong. The chapter continues by defining effective CPUs, another relevant topic in the world of hyperthreading and virtualization. Then it introduces several scalability models: Amdahl, geometric, quadratic, and super-serial. Just as with the essential forecasting formulas shown earlier, some of these are clearly ridiculous and do not model real systems at all.

The quadratic is a good example. This last chapter will be familiar to readers of Neil J. I am a bit skeptical about this book. Validation of precision of results is one of those. Although not everything is explained fully and there is not enough mathematical rigor to satisfy me, the applications of the techniques are worth learning, provided you do not rely on this book alone. I write about topics such as technology, mindfulness, and fitness, and I tweet at xaprb.

More about me.

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## Forecasting Oracle Performance

Use forecasting to identify future risk when and where. There are no discussion topics on this book yet. Latin had taken the word from Greek mathematikos, which in turn was based on mathesis. Identify the risk of over utilized resources. Craig is a good writer, forevasting you can read something different about Oracle performance. Ash added it Feb 11, craiig Implement forecasting methods and techniques into your daily work. Open Preview See a Problem?

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## Forecasting Oracle Performance (eBook, PDF)

Most if not all Oracle performance optimization books on the market today focus on troubleshooting acute problems such as a poorly performing report. The other side of the coin however, lies in forecasting: Will the current hardware last the year? What happens when we merge the employees from a newly acquired company? Will the current system keep up with the demands of a new application? These are strategic questions that database administrators are expected to answer. Until now, there has been no book to help them.

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## A Review of Forecasting Oracle Performance by Craig Shallahamer

The final prices may differ from the prices shown due to specifics of VAT rules About this book What makes seasoned IT professionals run for cover? Answer: Forecasting Oracle Performance! Craig Shallahamer is an Oracle performance expert with over 18 years of experience. Each chapter is filled with examples to transform the theory, mathematics, and methods into something you can practically apply. There is no hidden agenda. This book is a kind of training course. After reading, studying, and practicing the material covered in this book, you to be able to confidently, responsibly, and professionally forecast performance and system capacity in a wide variety of real-life situations.

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